The issue of succession seems to be nearing conclusion within ZANU PF. Private media reports that there are 2 distinct camps vying for power when President Mugabe departs, one pushing for Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa and another pushing for First Lady Grace Mugabe.

The First Lady is being put forward by those opposed to the ascendency of Mnangagwa .Names such as Jonathan Moyo and Saviour Kasukuwere have been thrown around to be pushing for Grace Mugabe’s presidency. Whether their manouvres are motivated by the fact that she would be a good leader or she would be an easy push over for their own power ambitions remains to be seen.

Jonathan Moyo has already said it was not a foregone conclusion that Emmerson Mnangagwa will take over thereby feeding the speculation of an impending vicious fight over succeeding President Mugabe .He has subsequently come out to criticize the VP whenever an opportunity arises.

There are two explanations for this. Either there is a real cold war for the throne going on or Moyo and others are creating a false appearance of a tussle to rope-a-dope others who may be interested in succeeding President Mugabe.

But from the looks of things the presidency is Mnangagwa’s to lose. Mnangwagwa has always been touted as President Mugabe’s blue eyed boy. He has been there from the start with the President and there is no doubt that his proximity to the President over the years has put him closer to the secrets of the state and the control of state machinery. He also seems to have used his proximity to state power to devastating effect.

His attempts to succeeding President Mugabe were blocked by the rival Mujuru camp in 2004 when the Thsolotsho declaration which was meant to catapult him into the vacant post of Vice President after the death of Simon Muzenda backfired.

It was vehemently resisted by the Mujuru camp who were threatening to leave the party or work with the opposition if their demands were not met.Such a move would have weakened the party considering that the opposition MDC was a formidable force at that time.Mugabe acceded to the Mujuru camp’s demands and amended the party constitution reserving one slot of VP for a woman. T

Faced with such fierce internal opposition, Mnangagwa had to retreat and Mugabe had to act. He amended the constitution and elevated Joyce Mujuru to the Vice Presidency of the party. The Mujuru faction had blocked Mnangagwa and recorded a temporary victory.

To consolidate their gains the Mujuru faction tried to block President Mugabe from standing as ZANU PF candidate in the 2008 elections. They had wanted to put the matter of succession to rest once and for all in 2007 congress but Mugabe outfoxed them and had his way mainly by coercion through the use of Jabulani Sibanda’s one million men march.

To voice their disapproval, the Mujuru faction did not campaign for President Mugabe and he subsequently lost the 2008 Presidential elections to in what became to be known as the bhora musango campaign to Morgan Tsvangirai. These developments served to confirm to President Mugabe who was loyal to him and who was eager to see his back. It also marked the political Lazarus moment for Mnangagwa who had been sidelined.

The 2008 presidential runoff therefore became an election of protecting the throne. As Didymus Mutasa alludes now after being expelled from the party, President Mugabe had accepted his defeat but such a loss was unacceptable to the securocrats. Emmerson Mnangagwa in particular could not fathom the removal of Mugabe from power as this would destroy any of his hopes of succeeding Mugabe. He needed to buy time by ensuring Mugabe’s continuous stay in power.

Mnangagwa harboured Presidential ambitions and aware of his lack of popular appeal, his greatest shot to power depended on President Mugabe’s continuous stay in power until the opportune moment. His best shot to power depended on President Mugabe leaving the reins of power to him.

It is not surprising that after defending the throne in 2008, Mnangagwa’s star shines again. The resulting government of National Unity that stabilised things a little allowed Mugabe to regroup both against his internal and external enemies.

By 2013, the MDC-T had lost its spark and internally General Solomon Mujuru, the driving force behind the ascendancy of Mai Mujuru had exited the political stage albeit in a tragic death that many have said was a hatchet job within the party.

The rest is history as they say. Mai Mujuru along with her backers were brutally purged from the party and Emmerson Mnangagwa and Phelekezela Mphoko were installed as the 2 vice presidents.

This is where the succession issue was concluded. Mugabe had effectively handed over the leadership of the party to the securocrats. Beyond him, the party and country needed steel and stability only which could be provided by a candidate who has the backing of the security apparatus of the country.

Mugabe is not stupid, he has young children and young wife who has business interests that need to be secured when he is gone. This requires a candidate who is not only strong but also loyal to him and Mnangagwa fits this bill.

President Mugabe knows that those pushing for Grace are not doing so out of loyalty to him. He is aware that they are the ones who want a weaker candidate that they can easily push over when he vacates power. Grace lacks both political capital and stamina required to keep her in power in the event that she ascends. Mugabe won’t take that chance.

Mnangagwa’s ascendancy will face internal resistance but it will be token resistance at most. Those resisting will eventually face the ‘night of the long knives’ at the appropriate time.

His biggest threat at the moment is the economy. Mugabe is no longer saleable in 2018 and also if Mugabe does not anoint him successor before 2018, he’ll face an uphill task in claiming the presidency. Internally he is unlikely to face any significant resistance.

The economy is not showing any signs of improvements and it will play a big role in guaranteeing Mnangagwa’s ascendancy. He is unlikely to do much if President Mugabe does not step aside before next year.

It is no stroll in the park for anyone to clean up the messy economy when President Mugabe is still alive. There is always a risk that if he over does trying to rescue the economy his enemies will accuse him of trying to make the President look bad.

There is no doubt that Mnangagwa is a front runner to the party Presidency beyond Mugabe but state presidency will depend very much on what Mugabe does between now and 2018. It will also be dependent on what happens to the economy.

A day in politics is too long and according to Mnanagagwa himself the road to state house is too long but the presidency is his to lose.