Marlvern Mkudu

The recent events within ZANU PF around succession have been confusing to many people. Until the First lady announced her entry into politics the faction headed by Vice President Mujuru looked set to sweep to victory at congress. They had won the battle to control the provinces which are key to electing leaders at congress and Mugabe seemed to be siding with them as they moved from victory to victory.

However, it all seemed like a plot of a story that would end well with Mujuru living happily ever after. The ‘bad guys’ were not going to die this easily. There would be a bloody fight.

It is important to note that Mugabe would never be naive enough to go to congress with Mujuru virtually controlling all the voting structures. He would be too vulnerable and besides a political genius of his ilk would not leave anything to chance or allow himself to be at the mercy of anyone. What guarantees would he have that Mujuru would not use her sway on party structures to effect a palace coup?

Those who are familiar with the Thsolothso debacle know that Mugabe found himself in that same exact position only that time it was Mnangagwa who controlled the structures. Mugabe swiftly suspended all provincial chairmen aligned to Mnangagwa and moved to punish those who attended the Thsolotsho meeting. By the time congress arrived Mnagagwa had been immobilised and Mugabe was in bed with the Mujuru faction.

Some six years later Mugabe finds himself in familiar territory and he reacts the exact same way to preserve his power and his interests. Sensing a chance to resurrect their political fortunes, the Mnangagwa faction has thrown their weight behind the First lady.

Mugabe has been feigning support of the Mujuru faction all along urging them on just to see how power hungry they were. An important thing to understand is Mugabe is not willing to give up power, he never has and over the years he has managed to preserve his power by ensuring that ZANU PF had 3 centres of power, himself and the two rival factions headed by Emmerson Mnangagwa and Solomon Mujuru respectively.

All he had to do was to side with one faction to keep the other in check. He offered no permanent allegiance to any one faction hopping from one faction to another whenever he felt that one of the factions was gathering momentum.

From now until conference we will witness the dismantling of the Mujuru structures and reversal of any political gains she will have made in the past years.  Mugabe will be the biggest beneficiary of this as he will once again emerge as the undisputed leader of the party.

Mujuru’s mistake was to go on as if Mugabe had actually died or was no longer a factor. Her statements that God may decide to call the president coupled by the unbridled pronouncement by Didymus Mutasa that she would take over all contributed in her political misfortune.

Mugabe reacted angrily to attempts by the late liberation icon Edgar Tekere to prop up Mujuru in his book. Mugabe interpreted this as an attempt to his presidency by Mujuru and thundered that if Tekere thought he was doing her a favour by this book he had actually harmed her prospects. So it is naive to think that Mugabe has not been suspicious of Mujuru’s intentions all along.

Whether the Mujuru faction will take the onslaught by Grace Mugabe lying down stands to be seen. Their options are either to toe the party line or leave the party. Leaving the party however means Mugabe can use his position as state president to prosecute them on the alleged corruption allegations that are being thrown around. Mugabe can also use his position as state president to demote from government those sympathetic to Mujuru.

The Mnangagwa faction has already accused the Mujuru faction of working with the US to topple President Mugabe through a vote of no confidence in parliament by teaming up with the MDCs. This is an excuse to rope in the military to carry out a purge on perceived opponents of the president.

So for now the most tactical decision by Mujuru would be to go back to the drawing board and restrategise. The Mnangagwa faction will also benefit in that the succession race will be blown open once again. These developments give them the opportunity to fight another day.

Meanwhile Mugabe will secure another term and the economy will continue to fail. At best the presidium maybe shaken by purging Mujuru loyalists but Mugabe will not allow the Mnangagwa faction to take up too much space either. It is a case of so near and yet so far for Mujuru while for Mnangagwa it is a ray of hope for his long held ambitions to succeed Mugabe.

In the meantime Zimbabwe will continue to be held hostage by Mugabe’s ambition to rule for life.

Malvern Mkudu writes in his personal capacity. He is available on malvern.mkudu@yahoo.com